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Will Holiday Spending Outpace Inflation?

Retail spending during the winter holiday months of November and December accounts for about 19% of total annual retail spending and is even more significant for some retail sectors.

In 2023, consumers spent $964.4 billion on retail goods and services during the holiday months. This was a 3.8% increase over 2022 and above the 3.4% rate of general inflation. Over the last decade, holiday spending has usually outpaced inflation, sometimes by a wide margin. With inflation slowing in 2024, this trend could continue.

Sources: National Retail Federation (NRF), January 17, 2024; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2024 (In calculating retail sales, the NRF includes stores, online, and other non-store sales but excludes automotive dealers, gas stations, and restaurants.)

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