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EagleStone Tax & Wealth Newsletter – May 2019

Mergers & Acquisitions: What's in the Deal for Investors?

Merger and acquisition (M&A) activity in North America and Europe reached its second highest level on record in 2018. There were 19,501 deals worth $3.6 trillion — a 6.3% increase in deal volume over 2017. There was also a rise in mega deals exceeding $10 billion.1

Collectively, U.S. corporations had plenty of cash to spend after a long string of solid profits and a significant tax cut.2 High stock prices also provided plenty of equity for deals involving the exchange of stock, while relatively-low borrowing costs made it possible to finance acquisitions.

The primary goal of a merger or an acquisition is to boost earnings growth by expanding operations, gaining market share, or becoming more efficient. Here’s a closer look at these important transactions and some possible implications for investors.

Deal-making terms

An acquisition is the purchase of one company by another that is paid for with stock, cash, or both. The target firm is absorbed by the buyer, and the buyer’s stock continues to trade. The target firm’s shareholders may receive stock in the buying company and/or have the option to sell their shares at a set price.

A true merger occurs when two companies of roughly equal size combine into one and issue new stock. In this case, stockholders of both companies generally receive shares in the new company. Some transactions that are technically acquisitions are announced as mergers when the deals are friendly, with both sides agreeing to fair terms. When one company purchases a controlling interest in another against the wishes of the target, it’s known as a hostile takeover; these transactions are typically announced as acquisitions.

Benefits and opportunities

Synergy is the financial benefit that is expected from the joining of two companies. This might be achieved by increasing revenue, gaining access to talent or technology, or cutting costs.

Bigger corporations typically benefit from economies of scale, which enables them to negotiate lower prices for larger orders with suppliers. In addition, combining two workforces into one often results in headcount reductions. Some mergers result in industry consolidation, but government regulators may scrutinize deals and/or block mergers that threaten competition. In other cases, companies may join forces across industries for strategic reasons or to diversify their lines of business. Disruptive competition from technology giants is one reason companies have been pursuing large mergers and novel cross-sector acquisitions.3

For better or worse

A successful merger should create shareholder value greater than the combined value of the separate companies. To accomplish this, the buyer must have an accurate assessment of how much the target company is worth.

When a deal is first announced, the share prices of both companies are likely to move up or down based solely on investor expectations. Of course, even a well-received merger could eventually be viewed as a disappointment if the merger fails to create enough value.

When a company pays more than the value of the other company’s assets, the difference is recorded as “goodwill” so that assets match up with liabilities. Sooner or later, underperforming companies may have to take a write-down in that goodwill value, causing the company’s share price to be discounted. Thus, only time will tell whether any particular deal will pay off in the form of future earnings growth or investor returns.

The return and principal value of stocks fluctuate with changes in market conditions. Shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Investments offering the potential for higher rates of return also involve higher risk.

1 PitchBook Data, 2019
2 U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2018
3 The New York Times, May 3, 2018

How Does the Federal Reserve Affect the Economy?

If you follow financial news, you’ve probably heard many references to “the Fed” along the lines of “the Fed held interest rates,” or “market watchers are wondering what the Fed will do next.” So what exactly is the Fed and what does it do?

What is the Federal Reserve?

The Federal Reserve — or “the Fed” as it’s commonly called — is the central bank of the United States. The Fed was created in 1913 to provide the nation with a safer, more flexible, and more stable monetary and financial system.

Today, the Federal Reserve’s responsibilities fall into four general areas:

  • Conducting the nation’s monetary policy by influencing money and credit conditions in the economy in pursuit of full employment and stable prices
  • Supervising and regulating banks and other important financial institutions to ensure the safety and soundness of the nation’s banking and financial system and to protect the credit rights of consumers
  • Maintaining the stability of the financial system and containing systemic risk that may arise in financial markets
  • Providing certain financial services to the U.S. government, U.S. financial institutions, and foreign official institutions, and playing a major role in operating and overseeing the nation’s payments systems

How is the Fed organized?

The Federal Reserve is composed of three key entities — the Board of Governors (Federal Reserve Board), 12 Federal Reserve Banks, and the Federal Open Market Committee.

The Board of Governors consists of seven people who are nominated by the president and approved by the Senate. Each person is appointed for a 14-year term (terms are staggered, with one beginning every two years). The Board of Governors conducts official business in Washington, D.C., and is headed by the chair (currently, Jerome Powell), who is perhaps the most visible face of U.S. economic and monetary policy.

Next are 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks that are responsible for typical day-to-day bank operations. The banks are located in Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco. Each regional bank has its own president and oversees thousands of smaller member banks in its region.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is responsible for setting U.S. monetary policy. The FOMC is made up of the Board of Governors and the 12 regional bank presidents. The FOMC typically meets eight times per year. When people wait with bated breath to see what the Fed will do next, they’re usually referring to the FOMC.

How does the Fed impact the economy?
One of the most important responsibilities of the Fed is setting the federal funds target rate, which is the interest rate banks charge each other for overnight loans. The federal funds target rate serves as a benchmark for many short-term interest rates, such as rates used for savings accounts, money market accounts, and short-term bonds. The target rate also serves as a basis for the prime rate. Through the FOMC, the Fed uses the federal funds target rate as a means to influence economic growth.

To stimulate the economy, the Fed lowers the target rate. If interest rates are low, the presumption is that consumers can borrow more and, consequently, spend more. For instance, lower interest rates on car loans, home mortgages, and credit cards make them more accessible to consumers. Lower interest rates often weaken the value of the dollar compared to other currencies. A weaker dollar means some foreign goods are costlier, so consumers will tend to buy American-made goods. An increased demand for goods and services often increases employment and wages. This is essentially the course the FOMC took following the 2008 financial crisis in an attempt to spur the economy.

On the other hand, if consumer prices are rising too quickly (inflation), the Fed raises the target rate, making money more costly to borrow. Since loans are harder to get and more expensive, consumers and businesses are less likely to borrow, which slows economic growth and reels in inflation.

People often look to the Fed for clues on which way interest rates are headed and for the Fed’s economic analysis and forecasting. Members of the Federal Reserve regularly conduct economic research, give speeches, and testify about inflation and unemployment, which can provide insight about where the economy might be headed. All of this information can be useful for consumers when making borrowing and investing decisions.

Quiz: How Much Have You Thought About Health and Health-Care Costs in Retirement?

Costs in Retirement?When planning for retirement, it’s important to consider a wide variety of factors. One of the most important is health and its associated costs. Thinking about your future health and the rising cost of health care can help you better plan for retirement in terms of both your finances and overall well-being. This quiz can help you assess your current knowledge of health and health-care costs in retirement.

Questions
1. Health-care costs typically rise faster than the rate of inflation.

True.

False.

2. You could need more than $500,000 just to cover health-care costs in retirement.

True.

False.

3. Medicare covers the costs of long-term care, as well as most other medical costs.

True.

False.

4. The southern, warmer states are generally the healthiest places for seniors to live.

True.

False.

5. If you’re concerned about health-care costs in retirement, you can just delay your retirement in order to maintain your employer-sponsored health benefits.

True.

False.

Answers
1. True. The average inflation rate from 2010 to 2017 was less than 2%, while the average spending on prescriptions, doctors, and hospitals grew between 4% and 5%. From 1970 to 2017, annual per-capita out-of-pocket spending on health care grew from about $600 to approximately $1,100 (in 2017 dollars).1

2. True. In 2017, America’s Health Rankings projected that a 45-year-old couple retiring in 20 years could need about $600,000 to cover their health-care costs, excluding the cost of long-term care. The same report projected that about 70% of those age 65 and older will need some form of long-term care services. And according to the Department of Health and Human Services, the average cost of a one-year stay in a nursing home (semi-private room) was $82,000 in 2016.2

3. False. Original Medicare Parts A and B help cover inpatient hospital care, physicians’ visits, preventive care, certain laboratory and rehabilitative services such as physical therapy, and skilled nursing care and home health care that are not long term. Medicare Part D helps cover the cost of prescriptions (within certain guidelines and limits). Medicare does not cover several other costs, including long-term care, dental care, eye exams related to eye glasses, and hearing aids. Seniors may need to purchase additional insurance to cover these and other services not covered by Medicare.3

4. False. Interestingly, America’s Health Rankings found that the five healthiest states for seniors were (1) Utah, (2) Hawaii, (3) New Hampshire, (4) Minnesota, and (5) Colorado.4

5. Maybe true, maybe false. Many people believe they will work well into their traditional retirement years, both to accumulate as large a nest egg as possible and to take advantage of employer-sponsored health benefits (if offered beyond Medicare age). While this is an admirable goal, you may not be able to control when you actually retire. In a 2018 retirement survey, nearly 70% of workers said they planned to work beyond age 65; 31% said they would retire at age 70 or older. But the reality is that nearly 70% of current retirees retired before age 65. Many of those individuals retired earlier than planned due to a health problem, disability, or other unforeseen hardship.5

The bottom line is that while it’s hard, if not impossible, to predict your future health needs and health-care costs, it’s important to work these considerations into your overall retirement planning strategies. Take steps now to keep yourself healthy — eat right, exercise, get enough sleep, and manage stress. And be sure to account for health-care expenses in your savings and investment strategies.

1 Consumer Price Index, Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2018, and Peterson-Kaiser Health System Tracker, 2018
2 Preparing for Health Care Costs in Retirement, America’s Health Rankings, 2017, and LongTermCare.gov, 2018
3 Medicare.gov
4 Senior Report, America’s Health Rankings, 2018
5 2018 Retirement Confidence Survey, Employee Benefit Research Institute

How much money should a family borrow for college?

There is no magic formula to determine how much you or your child should borrow for college. But there is such a thing as borrowing too much. How much is too much? One guideline is for students to borrow no more than their expected first-year starting salary after college, which, in turn, depends on a student’s particular major and/or job prospects.

But this guideline is simply that — a guideline. Just as many homeowners got burned in the housing crisis by taking out larger mortgages than they could afford, families can get burned by borrowing amounts for college that seemed reasonable at the time but now, in hindsight, are not.

Keep in mind that student loans will need to be paid back over a term of 10 years (possibly longer). A lot can happen during that time. What if a student’s assumptions about future earnings don’t pan out? Will student loans still be manageable when other expenses like rent, utilities, and/or car expenses come into play? What if a borrower steps out of the workforce for an extended period of time to care for children and isn’t earning an income? There are many variables, and every student’s situation is different. A loan deferment is available in certain situations, but postponing loan payments only kicks the can down the road.

To build in room for the unexpected, a smarter strategy may be for undergraduate students to borrow no more than the federal student loan limit, which is currently $27,000 for four years of college. Over a 10-year term with a 5.05% interest rate (the current 2018-2019 rate on federal Direct Loans), this equals a monthly payment of $287. If a student borrows more by adding in co-signed private loans, the monthly payment will jump, for example, to $425 for $40,000 in loans (at the same interest rate) and to $638 for $60,000 in loans. Before borrowing any amount, students should know exactly what their monthly payment will be. And remember: Only federal student loans offer income-based repayment (IBR) options.

As for parents, there is no one-size-fits-all rule on how much to borrow. Many factors come into play, including the number of children in the family, total household income and assets, and current and projected retirement savings. The overall goal, though, is to borrow as little as possible.

What is a college income-share agreement?

A college income-share agreement, or ISA, is a contract between a student and a college where a student receives education funding from the college today in exchange for agreeing to pay a percentage of future earnings to the college for a specified period of time after graduation. The idea behind ISAs is to minimize the need for private student loans, to give colleges a stake in their students’ outcomes, and to give students the flexibility to pursue careers in lower-paying fields.

Purdue University was the first college to introduce such a program in 2016. Under Purdue’s ISA program, students who exhaust federal loans can fund their education by paying back a share of their future income, typically between 3% to 4% for up to 10 years after graduation, with repayment capped at 2.5 times the initial funding amount.1

A handful of other colleges also offer ISAs; terms and eligibility requirements vary among schools.

ISAs are considered friendlier than private student loans because they don’t charge interest, and monthly payments are based on a student’s income. Typically, ISAs have a minimum income threshold, which means that no payment is due if a student’s income falls below a certain salary level, and a payment cap, which is the maximum amount a student must pay back relative to the initial funding amount. For example, a payment cap of 1.5 means that a student will pay back only 1.5 times the initial funding amount. Even with a payment cap, a student’s payment obligation ends after the stated fixed period of time, regardless of whether he or she has fully paid back the initial loan.

1 U.S. News & World Report, September 26, 2018

 

IRS Circular 230 disclosure: To ensure compliance with requirements imposed by the IRS, we inform you that any tax advice contained in this communication (including any attachments) was not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used, for the purpose of (i) avoiding tax-related penalties under the Internal Revenue Code or (ii) promoting, marketing or recommending to another party any matter addressed herein.

Prepared by Broadridge Investor Communication Solutions, Inc. Copyright 2019

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